Andy Burnham as Prime Minister: How Could It Affect UK Immigration Rules?

In Brief

If Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister, UK immigration law will not change overnight. Visa applicants, sponsors and families should continue to follow the current Immigration Rules and Home Office guidance unless and until the government publishes formal changes. However, a Burnham premiership could affect the political direction of immigration policy, particularly around sponsor licence compliance, Skilled Worker recruitment, asylum processing, immigration detention, settlement and regional workforce planning.

At the time of writing, Mr Burnham is widely reported as the leading candidate to replace Sir Keir Starmer following the announcement of Sir Keir’s resignation. That political development is significant, but it is not itself a legal change. For clients of OTS Solicitors’ immigration team, the practical message is simple: do not make immigration decisions based on speculation. Review your position under the rules as they stand today, and prepare early for further Home Office reform.

What has happened?

The political position is moving quickly. Andy Burnham, the former Mayor of Greater Manchester and a prominent Labour figure, is being discussed as a likely successor to Sir Keir Starmer. For immigration clients, the question is whether a change of Prime Minister would mean a change in UK immigration policy.

The answer is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. A Prime Minister can set political direction, appoint ministers, approve departmental priorities and support new legislation. However, most practical immigration changes still require formal legal or policy action. That may involve a Statement of Changes to the Immigration Rules, updated Home Office guidance, secondary legislation, primary legislation, or a new published policy framework.

That means current applications, sponsor licence duties and immigration deadlines should be managed under the existing framework unless the Home Office formally changes the rules.

The immediate legal position: no automatic change to visas or sponsor licences

For now, the key point is continuity. A change in political leadership does not automatically alter the requirements for a Skilled Worker visa, a sponsor licence, a spouse visa, an asylum claim or an application for indefinite leave to remain.

The current Skilled Worker visa framework still requires an applicant to have an eligible job, a Certificate of Sponsorship from an approved sponsor and a salary that meets the relevant minimum threshold and going rate. Employers must also comply with the current sponsor guidance for employers and educators, including record-keeping, reporting, right to work and compliance obligations.

In our experience, this is where businesses can be caught out during periods of political change. Employers sometimes pause planning while waiting to see what a new government will do. That can be risky. Sponsor licence compliance, salary checks and right to work systems need to be maintained continuously, regardless of who is Prime Minister.

What could change under a Burnham government?

At this stage, any analysis must be careful. There is not yet a complete published Burnham immigration programme. However, based on the wider political debate and recent UK immigration reforms, there are several areas where a Burnham government could shape the direction of policy.

1. Sponsor licence compliance may remain a priority

A Burnham premiership is unlikely to mean a relaxed approach to sponsor licence compliance. The political language around immigration has increasingly focused on order, control, enforcement and reducing abuse within the system. For employers, that means the safest assumption is continued Home Office scrutiny.

Businesses that rely on overseas recruitment should review their sponsor licence audit and compliance position now. This includes checking that:

• sponsored workers are genuinely working in the role described on their Certificate of Sponsorship;
• salary levels meet the required threshold in practice, not just on paper;
• work locations, hybrid arrangements and changes in duties are properly recorded;
• right to work checks are complete and retained correctly;
• the authorising officer, key contact and Level 1 users remain suitable and up to date.

For businesses that do not yet hold a licence, a carefully prepared sponsorship licence application remains essential. A new Prime Minister may alter policy direction, but the Home Office will still expect sponsor licence applicants to demonstrate genuine vacancies, proper HR systems and the ability to comply with sponsor duties.

2. Skilled Worker visas could become more closely linked to domestic skills planning

The recent direction of travel in UK immigration policy has been to reduce lower-skilled migration and connect work visa policy more closely to domestic training and workforce planning. A Burnham government could continue that approach, but potentially with a stronger regional and industrial strategy focus.

For employers, particularly in sectors such as healthcare, technology, construction, hospitality, education and professional services, this means immigration planning should not be isolated from wider recruitment strategy. The Home Office may increasingly expect sectors and sponsors to show why overseas recruitment is needed, how it fits with domestic skills development, and whether the role genuinely meets the relevant skill and salary requirements.

Employers using the UK Skilled Worker route should therefore keep a clear audit trail showing recruitment need, role eligibility, salary compliance and the commercial rationale for sponsorship.

3. Asylum, detention and removals may remain politically sensitive

Asylum and removal policy is likely to remain one of the most politically sensitive areas of immigration law. The current framework already includes significant changes. For example, the government has announced that, for many adults claiming asylum on or after 2 March 2026, refugee status or humanitarian protection will normally lead to 30 months’ permission to stay, subject to review, rather than the previous five-year model.

Clients with asylum, human rights or removal issues should not assume that a new Prime Minister will automatically reverse those changes. Anyone affected should take advice based on their individual facts, particularly where there is a refused claim, appeal deadline, fresh claim, detention issue or risk of removal.

OTS Solicitors advises clients on asylum and human rights applications, immigration detention, bail and removal and judicial review and human rights challenges where urgent legal intervention may be required.

4. Settlement and long-term residence could remain under review

Settlement policy is another area to watch. Recent government policy has already pointed towards a more contribution-based approach to long-term residence and settlement. If a Burnham government keeps the broad direction of tighter immigration control, applicants may see further emphasis on earnings, English language, integration, compliance history and public interest factors.

Individuals approaching indefinite leave to remain should avoid delay where they are already eligible and have a strong application. Waiting for political change can be risky, because transitional provisions are not always generous and future reforms may introduce stricter requirements.

5. Graduate route and student-to-work transitions may remain under pressure

Students and graduates should also monitor developments closely. The Graduate route has been subject to political scrutiny, and any new government will have to decide whether to continue, amend or revisit existing reforms affecting international students and post-study work options.

For graduates hoping to remain in the UK, the safest strategy is to consider options early. That may include a Graduate visa, Skilled Worker sponsorship, family-based routes or other immigration categories depending on the applicant’s circumstances.

What should businesses do now?

For business owners, HR directors and sponsor licence holders, the practical advice is to prepare rather than speculate. A leadership change may increase the pace of reform, but sponsor compliance risks already exist under the current rules.

Businesses should consider the following steps:

• carry out a sponsor licence compliance audit;
• review all sponsored workers against current salary, role and reporting requirements;
• check whether any Certificates of Sponsorship need updating;
• review right to work processes across the workforce;
• identify any roles that may become harder to sponsor if policy tightens further;
• prepare contingency plans for key staff whose visas are due to expire within the next 6 to 12 months.

For companies recruiting internationally, OTS Solicitors’ business immigration solicitors can advise on sponsor licence strategy, Skilled Worker visa planning and compliance risk management.

What should individuals and families do now?

For individuals and families, the main risk is delay. Immigration law can change quickly, and applicants should not assume that future reforms will be more favourable. If you are eligible for an extension, settlement, citizenship or a change of visa category, it is sensible to obtain advice before your current leave becomes urgent.

This is particularly important for:

• Skilled Worker visa holders approaching extension or settlement;
• spouses and partners preparing family visa applications;
• students and graduates planning their next visa route;
• refugees and people with humanitarian protection whose status may be reviewed;
• people facing refusal, detention, removal or appeal deadlines.

The OTS Solicitors immigration team advises individuals, families and businesses across London, the UK and internationally on complex UK immigration matters.

Will Andy Burnham take a softer or tougher approach to immigration?

It is too early to give a definitive answer. Mr Burnham’s political background suggests a strong interest in regional government, public services, homelessness, employment and social infrastructure. That could lead to a more joined-up approach between immigration, housing, skills and local government.

However, the current political climate is also placing pressure on all major parties to show control of the immigration system. As a result, a Burnham government could combine more active regional planning with strict enforcement of sponsor duties, asylum controls and removal processes.

For clients, the most important point is not the label of “soft” or “tough”. The practical question is whether your application, sponsor licence or immigration status is compliant under the rules in force when the Home Office makes its decision.

OTS Solicitors’ view

In our view, the immediate effect of an Andy Burnham premiership would be political rather than legal. The Home Office would continue to apply the current Immigration Rules unless formal changes are introduced. That said, the direction of UK immigration policy is already changing, and a new Prime Minister could accelerate further reform.

For employers, this is the time to strengthen sponsor licence systems. For individuals, it is the time to review eligibility and avoid unnecessary delay. For asylum and human rights clients, it is important to seek advice quickly where there is a refusal, deadline, detention issue or removal risk.

Immigration rules and Home Office guidance can change quickly, and this article reflects the position at the time of writing. Legal advice should always be taken on the facts of the individual case.

FAQs

Has Andy Burnham changed UK immigration law?

No. A change in political leadership does not itself change UK immigration law. Any change must be made through formal legal or policy routes, such as updated Immigration Rules, Home Office guidance or legislation.

Should sponsor licence holders wait before taking action?

No. Sponsor licence holders should continue to comply with current Home Office duties. Waiting for future policy announcements can increase the risk of non-compliance, particularly where salary, reporting or right to work issues already exist.

Could Skilled Worker visa rules change under a Burnham government?

Yes, they could change in future, but there is no automatic change simply because of a new Prime Minister. Employers and applicants should continue to apply the current Skilled Worker visa rules unless formal changes are announced.

Could asylum policy change?

Asylum policy could change if a new government introduces new rules or legislation. However, recent changes to refugee permission and asylum review periods remain important, and affected applicants should take advice based on the current rules.

Can OTS Solicitors advise before the rules change?

Yes. OTS Solicitors can advise businesses and individuals on current immigration options, compliance risks and practical planning before further political or legal changes are introduced. To speak to the team, call 0203 959 9123 or contact OTS Solicitors online.